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The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the oil price will be $81.8 per barrel in 2024, $71.8 per barrel in 2025, $70.1 per barrel in 2026 and $69.2 per barrel in 2027.European Central Bank President Lagarde: The European Central Bank will pay attention to the impact of the exchange rate on the economy. European Central Bank President Lagarde: The European Central Bank will pay attention to the impact of the exchange rate on the economy.Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)

Wu Yaping, Research Fellow, Investment Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission: Enhance the consistency of macro-policy orientation and give full play to the combination of different policy tools. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to integrate economic policies and non-economic policies into the consistency assessment of macro-policy orientation, coordinate the whole process of policy formulation and implementation, and improve the overall effectiveness of policies. In this regard, Wu Yaping, a researcher at the Investment Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that to enhance the consistency of macro-policy orientation, it is necessary to strengthen and improve the evaluation of macro-policy consistency, give full play to the combined force of more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, and give play to the combined role of different policy tools. It can be understood as "three plus": increasing fiscal and monetary policies, strengthening support for "duality" and "two innovations", and strengthening efforts to prevent and resolve risks in key areas. "The external environment will face greater uncertainty next year. We must adhere to' taking me as the main factor', strengthen the research on reserve policy, and fight for preparation." Wu Yaping said. (SSE)Deutsche Bank: MARCUS CHROMIK was appointed as Chief Risk Officer.Ceng Gang, chief expert and director of Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory: To further improve the governance structure of the restructured small and medium-sized banks, Ceng Gang, chief expert and director of Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, told reporters that in the past, the risk disposal and resolution of small and medium-sized financial institutions have been promoted in an orderly manner. The overall idea is to reduce the amount and improve the quality through mergers and acquisitions, that is, to replenish capital during the merger and reorganization process, on the one hand, to effectively deal with the stock risks, on the other hand, to enhance the ability of new institutions to cope with competition and risks through the scale effect formed after the merger. (SSE)

Market News: Hungarian Prime Minister Orban and Turkish President Erdogan discuss US sanctions against Gazprom.US President-elect Trump: Will do some great things in the field of cryptocurrency. Electricity will be needed.Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation: domestic bank deposits in the United States increased by 1.1% to US$ 194.6 billion, and uninsured deposits increased by 2.7%; The number of "problem banks" has increased by two to 68, with total assets of $87.3 billion.